Turkey's Growing Importance for the EU: How Will This Impact the Cyprus Issue? (Tr: Türkiye’nin AB İçin Önemi Artıyor: Bu Durum Kıbrıs Sorununa Nasıl Yansıyacak?)

 Turkey's Growing Importance for the EU: How Will This Impact the Cyprus Issue?

"Once seen as a 'peculiar' partner, Turkey has become indispensable for a weakened European Union," read headlines from various European newspapers. The fact that Turkey—home to NATO’s second-largest army and an active player in the Russia-Ukraine conflict via the Black Sea—was not invited to the meeting hosted by Emmanuel Macron with EU and NATO member states to support Ukraine has been described by political analysts as a "strategic mistake." Following the disastrous Zelenskyy-Trump meeting at the White House last week, it has become increasingly clear that Trump will not support Ukraine. As a result, a disillusioned EU, having lost hope in the U.S., is now looking to Turkey’s military strength for support.

A quarter of a century ago, Turkey was an eager candidate for EU membership. However, years of distancing from Brussels, escalating diplomatic tensions with Paris and Berlin, and deviations from the Copenhagen criteria had brought the country to the brink of a complete break from the EU. Until recently, Turkey was seen by EU countries as, at best, "peculiar" and, at worst, "destructive" and "unreliable." But now, for a militarily weakened EU, Turkey has become an essential and even irreplaceable NATO member.

Although we Cypriots like to think that the resolution of the Cyprus issue will revolve around us and our demands, the reality is that it has always been deeply connected to broader geopolitical developments in Europe and the Middle East. The upcoming UN-led negotiations will inevitably be influenced by these ongoing shifts in power. The five-party conference in Geneva will certainly reflect Turkey's evolving role in global relations.

Europe seems to be playing along, adopting a "grin and bear it" approach until it crosses the bridge. But is Turkey not aware of this? The EU will have demands from Turkey—but will these demands come without concessions? Next week, when Turkey sits at the table in Geneva for Cyprus negotiations, will it not insist even more firmly on the demands it has been pushing for years, knowing that it is now one of the most crucial mediators in the Russia-Ukraine war? Could the EU’s need to win over Turkey and Ankara’s rising strategic significance lead to greater consideration of Turkish Cypriot demands in the negotiation process?

Will Turkey’s growing strategic importance push the EU to be more flexible on the Cyprus issue? Could prioritizing Turkey’s demands in the negotiations force the EU to take a step back from its current position?

The answers to these questions will become clearer in the coming weeks or months. However, one thing is certain: Turkey's resurgence as an indispensable partner for Europe will significantly alter the balance of power in the Cyprus issue.

(Published in Özgür Gazete on 14.03.2025)


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Türkçe:

Türkiye’nin AB İçin Önemi Artıyor: Bu Durum Kıbrıs Sorununa Nasıl Yansıyacak?

                “Bir zamanlar 'tuhaf' bir ortak olan Türkiye, zayıflayan Avrupa Birliği için vazgeçilmez hale geldi,” diye başlıklar atıyor Avrupa’dan çeşitli gazeteler. Emmanuel Macron’un AB ve NATO üyesi devletler ile Ukrayna’yı desteklemek için yaptığı toplantıda, Türkiye’nin, NATO’nun en büyük ikinci ordusuna sahip ve Rusya-Ukrayna’daki çatışmaya Karadeniz’den aktif olarak mücadele edebilecek ülke olarak o masaya çağrılmaması, çeşitli siyasi analistler tarafından ‘stratejik bir hata’ olarak yorumlanıyor. Geçen hafta yazımda bahsettiğim Beyaz Saray’daki Zelenskyy-Trump görüşmesinin facia ile sonuçlanmasının ardından, Trump’ın Ukrayna’ya yardım etmeyeceği daha da net anlaşılıyor ve AB, Amerika’dan umudunu kesmiş bir şekilde Türkiye’nin askeri gücüne sırtını yaslamaya çalışıyor…

Sadece çeyrek asır önce Türkiye, AB üyeliği için hevesli bir adaydı. Ancak Brüksel'den yıllarca uzaklaşması, Paris ve Berlin ile giderek artan diplomatik gerginlikler yaşaması ve Kopenhag kriterlerinden sapması, ülkeyi AB'den tamamen kopma noktasına getirmişti. Yakın bir geçmişe kadar AB ülkeleri tarafından en iyi ihtimalle ‘tuhaf’, en kötü ihtimalle ise ‘yıkıcı’ ve ‘güvenilmez’ olarak görülen Türkiye, artık savunma anlamında her zamankinden daha da zayıflamış bir AB için, NATO'nun önemli ve hatta vazgeçilmez bir üyesi konumunda.

                Her ne kadar biz Kıbrıslılar, Kıbrıs sorununun çözümü bizim etrafımızda ve bizim isteklerimize göre şekillenecek diye düşünüyor olsak da Kıbrıs sorunu, özellikle Avrupa ve Orta Doğu'daki daha geniş jeopolitik gelişmelerle derinden bağlantılı olmaya hep devam edecek. BM öncülüğündeki müzakereleri yeniden başlayacak olması, bölgedeki devam eden güç değişimlerinden ayrı tutulmayacak tabi ki. Cenevre'de yapılacak olan beşli konferans, özellikle Türkiye'nin küresel ilişkilerdeki gelişen rolünden etkilenecek…

                Köprüyü geçene kadar ayıya dayı demeliyiz misali hareket ediyormuş gibi görünüyor Avrupa. Peki ya, Türkiye de bunun farkında değil mi? AB’nin Türkiye’den istekleri olacak; ama bu istekler karşılıksız mı olacak sizce? Önümüzdeki hafta, Türkiye, Cenevre’de Kıbrıs sorunu için masaya oturacak da bu kadar zamandır ısrarla dile getirdiği isteklerini, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşının en büyük arabulucularından ve sorunun çözümü için kilit ülkelerden biri olduğunu bilerek şimdi daha da güçlü bir şekilde ısrarla diretmeyecek mi? AB'nin Türkiye'yi kazanma isteği ve Ankara’nın artan stratejik önemi, çözüm sürecinde Türk tarafının taleplerine daha fazla ağırlık verilmesine neden olabilir mi?

                Ankara’nın yükselen stratejik önemi, AB’yi, Kıbrıs meselesinde daha esnek olmaya zorlar mı? Kıbrıs’taki müzakerelerde, Türkiye’nin taleplerine daha fazla ağırlık verilmesi, AB’nin mevcut pozisyonundan geri adım atmasına neden olur mu?

Önümüzdeki haftalar ya da aylar, bu sorulara net yanıtlar getirecek. Ancak şu bir gerçek ki, Türkiye’nin Avrupa için yeniden vazgeçilmez hale gelmesi, Kıbrıs sorununda dengeleri ciddi anlamda değiştirecek.


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